2025 NCAAF Season Preview: FPI Projections, Top Teams, and Key Matchups

The 2025 NCAAF season promises to be one of the most exciting yet, with the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) format continuing to reshape the postseason landscape. The Football Power Index (FPI) has released its projections for the upcoming season, offering insights into which teams are poised for success and which matchups will be the most thrilling.

Top Teams by 2025 FPI National Championship Odds

According to ESPN Analytics, the SEC remains dominant, with 11 of the top 19 teams hailing from the conference. The Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs lead the pack, with Texas holding a 22.2% chance of winning the national championship and Georgia not far behind at 17.5%. Other top contenders include Ohio State, Alabama, and Penn State.

Top 5 Teams:

1. Texas Longhorns (SEC) - 22.2% Championship Odds
2. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC) - 17.5% Championship Odds
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten) - 11.6% Championship Odds
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC) - 10.4% Championship Odds
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten) - 7.6% Championship Odds

SEC and Big Ten Dominance

The SEC is projected to have 4.6 playoff teams, nearly twice as many as any other conference, with a 61% chance of producing the eventual champion. The Big Ten follows closely, with Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon all expected to make strong playoff runs.

Conference Playoff Projections:

• SEC: 4.6 teams, 61.4% Championship Odds
• Big Ten: 2.9 teams, 25.8% Championship Odds
• ACC: 1.6 teams, 8.3% Championship Odds
• Big 12: 1.2 teams, 1.7% Championship Odds

Group of 5 Playoff Contenders

Boise State is predicted to make the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year, leading the Group of 5 with a 25.2% chance. Tulane and UNLV are also strong contenders, making the race for the guaranteed G5 playoff spot one to watch.

Top Group of 5 Teams:

1. Boise State Broncos (MWC) - 25.2% Playoff Odds
2. Tulane Green Wave (American) - 24.3% Playoff Odds
3. UNLV Rebels (MWC) - 21.3% Playoff Odds

Best Offenses and Defenses

The top four projected offensive teams—Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State—are also the top four projected defensive teams. This balance on both sides of the ball is crucial in the expanded playoff format, where versatility is key.

Top Offenses:

1. Texas Longhorns - FPI: 14.1
2. Georgia Bulldogs - FPI: 12.5
3. Alabama Crimson Tide - FPI: 11.8

Top Defenses:

1. Texas Longhorns - FPI: 14.0
2. Georgia Bulldogs - FPI: 13.0
3. Alabama Crimson Tide - FPI: 11.3

Biggest Risers and Fallers

Florida Atlantic leads the biggest risers, projected to improve by at least 25 ranking slots after adding several key transfers. On the other hand, Army is expected to regress significantly after losing key players from last season's 12-2 team.

Biggest Risers:

1. Florida Atlantic Owls - +40 spots
2. Florida State Seminoles - +39 spots
3. Stanford Cardinal - +29 spots

Biggest Fallers:

1. Army Black Knights - -46 spots
2. Marshall Thundering Herd - -37 spots
3. Washington State Cougars - -33 spots

Key Matchups to Watch

The 2025 season will feature several high-stakes matchups, including Texas vs. Georgia, Ohio State vs. Michigan, and Alabama vs. Auburn. These games will not only impact playoff seeding but also provide thrilling entertainment for fans.

Top Matchups:

1. Texas at Georgia - Game Quality: 99.3
2. Texas at Ohio State - Game Quality: 98.9
3. Alabama at Georgia - Game Quality: 97.6

Conclusion

The 2025 NCAAF season is shaping up to be another wild and transformative year, with the FPI providing a roadmap to navigate the chaos. From SEC dominance to the rise of Group of 5 contenders, there's no shortage of storylines to follow. Stay tuned for what promises to be an unforgettable season of college football.