NFL Week 1 2025: Key Matchups, Fantasy Sleepers, and Bold Predictions

Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is already underway, with the Eagles beating the Cowboys in the opener and the Chargers defeating the Chiefs in Brazil. We've been preparing for the regular season for weeks with previews and rankings, but just in case you still need some last-minute intel for the 14 games remaining on Sunday and Monday, our NFL analysts have you covered at the eleventh hour.

Stat Trends

Jahmyr Gibbs' Receiving Game Against Packers' Zone Coverage

One of my favorite stat splits is the discrepancy between a running back's receiving numbers against man and zone coverage. Backs were targeted on 10% of man coverage dropbacks last season and caught passes on 8% of such dropbacks. But against zone, those same numbers jumped to 18% and 15%, respectively. That's almost doubling the reception rate when facing zone looks!

Well, take a guess who ranked third in receiving yards among running backs and which team ranked second in zone coverage rate last season. That's right, Gibbs and the Packers. He should be set up for a huge day.

Fantasy Sleepers

Ollie Gordon II, RB, Miami Dolphins (40.1% rostered)

The sixth-round rookie is De'Von Achane's backup while Jaylen Wright recovers from a lower-leg injury that could keep him out of the first month of the season. Achane is expected to play as he recovers from his own injury (calf), but don't be surprised if Gordon has close to 10 touches in short-yardage and goal-line situations. The Colts allowed 18 rushing touchdowns last season, tied for seventh most in the league. Gordon rushed for 34 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Oklahoma State, winning the 2023 Doak Walker Award as college football's top running back.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos (39.9% rostered)

Despite Denver signing tight end Evan Engram this offseason, Mims has earned a larger target share after showing major upside in the latter half of 2024. Over the final eight games, Mims caught 32 of 37 targets from Bo Nix for 447 yards and six touchdowns. His ability to threaten defenses in the vertical passing game makes him an excellent sleeper, even against the Titans' tough secondary.

Bold Predictions

Highest-Scoring Game: Raiders vs. Patriots

Week 1 is always good for a surprising barn burner or two, and I'll be glued to this matchup Sunday. The Raiders' offense is a particular fascination. Will Chip Kelly go hurry-up? How aggressive will Geno Smith be throwing downfield? Can Ashton Jeanty immediately be a top-10 running back?

And on the other side of the field, Drake Maye has a new offensive coordinator, two new tackles and a new WR1 in Stefon Diggs. Patriots star corner Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) is likely out for this one, too. I'm looking for fireworks.

Bengals Finally Look Good

The opening week has not been kind to Cincinnati in recent seasons. Last year, they lost to the Patriots in a 16-10 snoozefest. In 2023, they suffered a 24-3 embarrassment against the Browns.

But this season, the Bengals totally overhauled their training camp process. Quarterback Joe Burrow played five drives in the preseason, and neither Ja'Marr Chase nor Tee Higgins held out this offseason. The Bengals' offense is ready to come out of the gate fast, and it's an old friend -- that Browns defense -- waiting on the other side.

Key Matchup

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams vs. Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores

Flores' defensive system creates confusion for opposing quarterbacks due to pressure and late coverage rotation. Last season, the Vikings led the NFL with a blitz rate of 38.4%, and we should expect Flores to heat up the pocket in Chicago on Monday night. Yes, new Bears coach Ben Johnson has experience against Flores and will scheme up answers to pressure. But it's still on Williams, who had a QBR of only 56.4 versus the blitz as a rookie, to identify the post-snap picture and throw with timing when Flores speeds up his internal clock.

Best Bet of the Week

Detroit Lions +1.5 at Green Bay Packers

Detroit is built to travel with a seasoned quarterback, one of the most effective rushing offenses and a coaching staff that stays aggressive in key spots. The opening line was 1.5, but is the addition of edge rusher Micah Parsons to Green Bay really worth a full point? He certainly boosts the Packers' pass rush, but the Lions' offensive line is still elite.

Quarterback Jordan Love doesn't get wide receiver Christian Watson back yet from his ACL injury, and the Packers' vertical game could be limited outside of Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed. Detroit's revamped secondary matches up well. The seasonlong upside is there with the Pack -- but not against this Lions team out of the gate. Grab the points with the better roster.