Fantasy hockey thrives on identifying trends and timing, especially when it comes to players experiencing mid-career or late-career slumps. Understanding which dips are temporary versus true declines can make the difference between holding a player and cutting them too soon.

Historical Insights

Since the 2009-10 season, there have been 71 instances where a fantasy-relevant forward (with a career FPPG of 1.7 or better) experienced a drop of at least 0.35 FPPG, only to recover to their career average in a subsequent season. This pattern offers hope for players currently in a production dip.

Notable Bounce-Back Candidates

• Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks: With a career FPPG of 2.27 and a last season FPPG of 1.95, Pettersson is under immense pressure to rebound. His potential as a top 10 fantasy player makes him a second-round draft option.
• Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders: After managing 80 points in 2023-24, Barzal is a low-risk, decent-reward choice with an ADP approaching 200 in ESPN drafts.
• Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks: Boeser's goal scoring dropped from 40 to 25 last season, but with Quinn Hughes on the power play, he should get closer to 40 goals this season.

Defensemen on the Rise

There are fewer examples of defensemen bouncing back, but 21 instances since 2009-10 show a drop of at least 0.35 FPPG followed by a recovery. Key candidates include:

• Adam Fox, D, New York Rangers: Despite a last season FPPG of 2.07, Fox is still a value pick at his current ADP as the No. 10 defender off the board.
• Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins: McAvoy's rebound potential hinges on the Bruins' overall performance, but he’s worth picking up after the first 24 blueliners are gone.

Final Thoughts

Fantasy hockey is as much art as science. Historical trends offer a framework to identify which slumps are likely temporary and which are true declines. Context is key: age, team situation, coaching, and role all matter. Younger players in a downturn may have a path back to their career norms, while veterans are far less likely to rebound. Using this data thoughtfully can help you make informed roster decisions and maybe even capitalize on the occasional mid-career comeback.